Numbers Matter

No fun quote. No cute title.

As a follow up to my previous posting about the election, I simply must take some time to yell at the two news sources I recommended. Since they don't read this blog you can just interpret this as venting.

Many people in America simply do not understand basic math. It is import that you, as news sources, have a duty to report the facts, and if you report the facts such that a majority of Americans misunderstand them, you aren't doing your job.

For those confused: Congress has recently been debating a $700 billion authorization of the Treasury to purchase illiquid assets off of Wall Street balance sheets.

Two things are incredibly relevant here:

1. That number may go higher. This is bad news.


2. That number is not the amount of money the government will "be out". This is the good news and the part most people don't understand.

See the government isn't saying "here, have $700 billion." They're saying "here's $700 billion, give us (essentially) $700 billion dollars worth of mortgages."

According to David Loenhardt those mortgages are probably now valued (mathematically) at 75% of their original value. The problem right now is that because nobody is willing to buy, the few that are selling are selling for 25% of their original value.

You can see where I'm going with this. Most of these mortgages are going to be paid off. Even if several don't, a very large chunk of their original value will come through (thus the 75% estimate.) Even if Treasury paid 75 cents on the dollar for them (way higher than will likely happen) it is very very likely the US Government would break even. I can't say that enough: these mortgages still have value, and it is likely they have a great deal of value. But because there are no buyers right now they aren't selling: that's what illiquid means.

The government doesn't even need to pay 75 cents on the dollar, though. Most holders will probably sell for something much lower. (I'm gonna pull a number out of the air here and say... 50 cents on the dollar, becuase it makes the math easy.) Even if twice as many people foreclose as it looks like actually will, that kind of purchase would still let the government break even.

Now, will some bad things happen? Yes. But let's say the market is right, and they are really only worth 25 cents on the dollar and we buy at 50 cents on the dollar. That means out of our $700 billion, we'll only lose half: $350 billion. That's still a huge number, but is, for instance, lower than what we spent on the Iraq war last year (at $1 billion a day) so doesn't that make the number not seem like the apocalypse?

So, please, news organizations of America: please point out that we aren't buying worthless stuff for our $700 billion. This is a serious issue, worthy of serious discussion, but it's not what you're painting it to be.

Sorry for the lack of updates

Mother's been "home" for about a week now -- she left the hospital on Saturday (9/13) and has been staying with Aunt BJ and Uncle Arnie. They're not technically related to us, but they've always been Aunt and Uncle to me (I'm told it's a Southern thing?) Anyway, Aunt BJ is the one who originally convinced Mother to head to the ER when she was having a heart attack -- for which I'm VERY thankful. And she's a nurse (a doctor nurse, actually -- PhD in nursing, and a prof at UT's nursing school now) and wanted to have Mother at her house for a while so she could help take care of her. I'm so thankful that she's doing this, and that Mother has so many close friends around her while Evie and I are far away.

Anyway, she went home on oxygen, but is gradually using less and less -- she's down to using it only when she sleeps and occasionally other times. They finally decided that the nerve that controls the left side of her diaphragm (frenic nerve?), which passes very close to the heart, had been damaged or just "frozen" during surgery, so basically the left side of her diaphragm is paralyzed. Most of the time, this repairs itself in 4 months to a year (!), but in any case there's nothing they can do but watch and wait. Her body may just adjust to only breathing on one side.

She's generally feeling pretty good, but could still use prayer for:

• digestive health (she's having some troubles there, and it's making her very uncomfortable and frustrated)
• less coughing, especially while lying down -- this seems to have improved in the last day or two, but it's still painful and annoying for her
• increased energy and endurance every day, and eventually returning back to "normal" activity levels
• that her MS wouldn't have an exacerbation (apparently it's not uncommon after major surgery, and also she's been off her usual MS meds because they didn't want the medicine interfering with her surgical recovery)

Thanks!

And now an update of another kind -- our friend Xiao died this weekend in hospice care. Please pray for Michelle and their kids -- Nathan (the older one) especially, since he is old enough to really understand that Daddy's dead. Michelle has visitation/funeral info on Xiao's care page (link to the right).

Think!

"Mitch: Did you know there's a guy living in our closet?
Chris: You've seen him too?
Mitch: Who is he?
Chris: Hollyfeld.
Mitch: Why does he keep going into our closet?
Chris: Why do you keep going into our closet?
Mitch: To get my clothes - but that's not why he goes in there.
Chris: Of course not, he's twice your size - your clothes would never fit him. Think before you ask these questions, Mitch. Twenty points higher than me? Thinks a big guy like that can wear his clothes?" -Real Genius

Many of you know I cut my adolescent teeth in speech and debate, but I do (I think) an admirable job of not bringing up things on this blog that might be divisive among our friends. After all, you aren't here for political analysis; if you're like most of the populace you either already have your mind made up or you deliberately fence-sit because ultimately you aren't sure your opinion matters. You're here (probably) to see pictures of Asher or (less likely) because you're on Facebook and bored. (Or you're with the telemarketing industry... how y'all doin'?)

I'm not going to make an exception to this rule now, but I am going to talk about politics. Please please please for the love of whatever is important to you in your life, take this election seriously. Make your friends take it seriously too. Our candidates want, I think, to take this election seriously, but when every news cycle is dominated by pig quotes or kindergarten sex ed or poking fun at "drill, baby, drill" it's hard to get a message out. There's a lot of blame to be placed for this particular predicament, and while I have thoughts and opinions you won't see them here (see the above paragraph).

But, please take your job as a voter in a democracy seriously in these elections. The founders didn't believe in vast-unwashed masses taking a direct hand in their governance because they would always be underinformed, easily manipulated, or otherwise truly incapable of making the decisions necessary to good government. I agree with this, mostly because I often find myself in that very category.

James Madison wrote in Federalist 10:

Hence it is that such democracies have ever been spectacles of turbulence and contention; have ever been found incompatible with personal security or the rights of property; and have in general been as short in their lives as they have been violent in their deaths. Theoretic politicians, who have patronized this species of government, have erroneously supposed that by reducing mankind to a perfect equality in their political rights, they would, at the same time, be perfectly equalized and assimilated in their possessions, their opinions, and their passions.

(Before you go off ignoring the point I'm trying to make; yes, I know Madison is talking about pure democracies, arguing in favor of republic, which of course is the shape we have taken. But I think Madison would agree with me in our current state, especially since he is talking about the problem of faction in governance. Making the logical connections is left as an exercise to the reader, but they are there.)

Since, however, we find ourselves in such a mess as that described, whereby all of us, regardless of time, intention, or qualification are given exactly the same sway as every one else (electoral college considerations not withstanding) in the selection of our highest government official, let us vow (at least to ourselves) that this election season we will try our best to make a rational decision.

This will not be easy given the current news coverage. I'm thoroughly post-modern in my view that an objective source of news/debate is impossible to find. Let me therefore suggest that those of you on the left read (at least once a week) all the articles and editorials from that poor-hating, business-bedding rag called the Wall Street Journal, and those of you on the right read (at least once a week) all the articles and editorials from that hippie-infested, elitist-catering propaganda machine called the New York Times. (For extra credit, read an overseas source of news as well, although this will probably involve some financial outlay on your part. The Economist, Financial Times, and others all qualify.)

Most of you will know all the viewpoints discussed. Few, if any, issues you decide elections on will change in your mind. But at least you will be deciding this election based on something instead of nothing.

Both candidates for our highest office have deep convictions and political values that run both with and contrary to their party (again, despite the coverage). You will never know the wheres and hows of this, however, from 5 minutes of shouting by pundits or reading/listening/watching your one biased source of news.

While you're bemoaning the waste of time it seems to be, remember to be thankful for the blessing it is to be born in this country, where such an investigation is even possible.

Links

After reading Sharon's recent update I realized that, based on email traffic, I think about a third of the people occasionally visiting this blog know us from Rice, and thus there is a good chance that you know John, Abby, Michelle, and Xiao.

So, I added their two blogs to the right side of the page. They're in the links section.

News, but also a reminder

First, the update: Mom is in good spirits most of the time, and looks and sounds good, although she feels pretty bad -- she's coughing a lot, and that hurts her sternum every time. But the fluid/collapse situation is as before, and they're talking about trying steriods to reduce the inflamation (but they might mask any infection that starts) or going to surgery to put in a chest tube so she can drain constantly, in the hope that reduced fluid pressure, in combination with the breathing treatments, will help her expand her lungs. She also got more packed cells (red blood cells, so blood without the plasma) yesterday 'cause her count was down again. So please pray for:

• coughing only as much as needed to clear her lungs, and less pain with that
• continued energy to walk, talk, and so on
• a good decision from the doctors about the fluid in her lungs
• eventual (soon?) reinflation of all of her lung
• that everything else would stay on track: blood count, blood pressure, heart working well, etc.

However, I was reminded this morning that however worried and sad I am about how well she's doing, she really is doing pretty well and there are many folks with many more problems. 2 couples we were friends with in college are going through some really hard times right now, and I'd appreciate your prayers for them too:

• John and Abby lost their 16 month old son, James, a few weeks ago (late August). He had many medical problems, but seemed to be doing better, and I cannot imagine the emptiness they face each morning when they get up with no little boy to take care of.
• Xiao has cancer with tumors in his brain; he's in the midst of chemo and radiation, but his body is so weak they can't do all they'd like. Right now he's lost the ability to walk and talk for the most part. Michelle is incredibly confident in God's ability and will to heal him, and it's inspiring to read. But I know it must be really scary for her and their kids, and also for Xiao.

(If you read this, know John, Abby, Xiao, and Michelle, and didn't know about this stuff, you can contact me and I'll get you more info.)

I gotta stop calling home.

I keep getting bad news.

This morning there was more fluid in the lungs, and the air sacs are not opening at all with the new treatment. So, she went for a CAT scan, they saw where the fluid was, and drained another 600 ml. They're hoping that does the trick, but apparently there's really no more talk of going home soon -- this is a battle that must be won, and nobody thinks it's going to be quick anymore.

I got a kind of jumbled version of things -- mother and nurse talking, daddy relaying information to me -- but it also sounds like they may have done another x-ray after the drain procedure, and there was *still* fluid. Bah. Humbug.

I have no idea if anyone's even reading this, but if so -- please pray for her. I'm worried about her.

"Collapsed lung" is not as scary as it sounds...

.... in this case at least. Usually that phrase refers to a pneumothorax, but that's not what Mother has. It seems she has atelectasis.

I talked to her last night, and she sounded good, and was in much better spirits, so that was nice to hear. She's now supposed to walk the halls five times a day, do deep breathing with a nebulizer twice a day, and have percussive massage at least once a day -- plus the usual twice daily physical therapy, the visits from doctors, and the frequent nurse and aide visits and procedures. So, she'll be busy! But they say if all goes well she could go home in 2 days or so.

Thank you for your prayers, and please keep praying!

And so it goes

Well, she has some fluid back in her lungs.

And her left lung is now "partially collapsed". (maybe as a result of the procedure yesterday, but maybe not.)

This does not sound good to me, but I am told it's pretty common and they're not too worried. She's now doing breathing treatments with a nebulizer, and having percussive massage on her back at least once a day to loosen mucus in her lungs.

On the bright side, her nausea is mostly gone, and her pain, while more than before, is not too bad.

Please continue to pray. I don't like it when my mommy is sick, especially when I don't fully understand what's going on and can't be there to interrogate and nag the medical staff.

Just when I thought things were going well...

The last post was based on information I had Sunday evening. Apparently, Sunday night/this morning Mother had some nausea and was sick -- several possible reasons have been suggested, but nobody really knows why -- and has felt bad all day, even though she had some anti-nausea medication.  

Then, her doctor noticed more sounds of fluid in her lungs, and this evening she had an ultrasound to see how much was there.  Turns out it was a lot, and they drained about 400 ml (a bit less than 2 cups). They use a big long needle with local anesthetic, and of course that's going to hurt more when the local wears off. She may be able to breathe a bit better, though.

Apparently this is a common problem after major surgery, and nothing to worry about. I am worried, though -- I feel like I left Austin at just the wrong time, and I should have been there to take care of her and help support her through this.

Anyway, please pray for:

• less pain, both from the surgery and the draining procedure -- she can take more pain meds, but one of the nausea theories is that the narcotic is making her sick, so she doesn't want to take very much.
  
• easier breathing and less need for oxygen, since the fluid is mostly gone. Also that the fluid doesn't build up again
• energy to move around more - this will help the fluid situation, apparently
• freedom from nausea and other digestive problems
• good spirits -- this has understandably upset mother and she's feeling pretty down.  "I'm supposed to be getting better!"  She understands that setbacks are a part of recovery, but both these things in one day is pretty frustrating.  Apparently, depression is common after heart surgery, so please pray that she will be protected from that.

Thanks.

All going well...

Mother continues to improve; she's been walking 2 or 3 times a day in the hospital halls, as well as walking around the room. At this point, they're thinking she'll go home sometime between tomorrow (Tuesday) and Thursday. The 2 big things they want before she leaves are for her to be completely off extra oxygen (she's not on much, but some) and for her to have the energy and balance to walk down the hall without a walker. So, if you're praying, pray for that.

She'll probably be staying with a family friend for a while, so if you'd like to give her a call after she leaves the hospital, let me know and I'll get you the number.

More updatey-ness

Good news today -- Mother's blood count and pressure are both up! The red blood cell count is back up, not to normal but to where she was just after surgery, and the pressure is basically normal. Praise God! She felt much better today, and as a result got worked hard -- she was out of bed 6-7 times, and went for a very short walk down the hall! It's wonderful to see. Of course, she's pretty tired after each effort, but her endurance should gradually increase.

They think she'll be getting out, if all goes well, on Monday or Tuesday next week.

Thanks for your prayers.

Quick Update

I have to run back to the room, where there is no internet access, but a quick rundown:

Mother had surgery; they did 6 bypasses. She was in the ICU for 24 hours and is now in a regular room, being monitored and recovering. (Please email or call if you want the room number or phone number.)

She's doing well overall, but could use prayer for:

• her blood pressure is generally staying lower than they want
• her hematocrit (measures red blood cells, essentially) is quite low and dropped a lot from Wednesday to Thursday; they're giving her blood, but they don't really know why it dropped.
• she's in a fair bit of pain (of course!) -- pray the pain medicine would be effective
• she's having trouble breathing deeply, and her lungs aren't yet expanded fully. this can lead to pneumonia if it doesn't get better

Thank you all!